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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.